Asteroid that could have been 'city-killer' has greater chance of hitting Moon than Earth
New observations suggest that a "city-killer" asteroid has a slightly higher chance of hitting the Moon than our planet.
A "city-killer" asteroid, initially thought to have a 3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, is now more likely to hit the Moon. The space rock, known as 2024 YR4, was detected last year and has been closely monitored since.
Further observations have significantly reduced the threat to Earth, but indicate a small possibility of the asteroid colliding with the Moon. Data collected by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has improved our understanding of the asteroid's trajectory by nearly 20%.
NASA reports that the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. However, the space agency assures that even if the asteroid were to strike the Moon, it would not affect the orbit of Earth's only natural satellite, reports Daily Express UK.
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Current estimates suggest there's a 95% chance that 2024 YR4 will miss the Moon entirely.
The observations were made by an international team of experts led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in the US, using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May.
At present, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is too distant to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes.
NASA plans to conduct further observations when the asteroid's orbit around the Sun brings it closer to Earth in 2028.
Infrared observations from the James Webb Space Telescope conducted in March estimate that 2024 YR4 measures between 174-220 feet (53-67m). When first discovered by experts at the Minor Planet Centre, 2024 YR4 was believed to have a "very small" chance of impacting Earth.
Following additional observations and recalculations, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been ruled out as a threat with "no significant chance" of hitting Earth in 2032 or later.
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New findings on 2024 YR4 indicate it could have originated as a piece of rock from a larger asteroid, evident from its rich silicate composition reported by the Independent.
Experts believe that the asteroid's journey to its present orbit may have been influenced by gravitational forces exerted by Jupiter.
