Russia could be 'power broker' for Israel and Iran amid devastating strikes in Middle East
Russia has tried to maintain warm relations with Israel even as it has developed strong economic and military ties with Iran, putting Moscow in an awkward position as the two countries are on the brink of war
Russia could emerge as a key power broker between Iran and Israel as the two Middle Eastern powers are on the brink of all out war.
The recent Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, which resulted in the deaths of top generals and scientists, and Tehran's retaliatory drone and missile attacks, have put Moscow in a tricky spot. This requires careful diplomacy to maintain ties with both parties, but it could also present Russia with an opportunity to step in as a mediator to help resolve the conflict.
Some analysts in Moscow suggest that the global focus on the Israel-Iran confrontation could divert attention away from the war in Ukraine. This could potentially play into Russia's favor by weakening Western support for Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reached out to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering assistance to de-escalate the conflict.
During his conversation with Pezeshkian, Putin expressed condemnation of the Israeli strikes and offered his condolences. He highlighted that Russia has proposed specific initiatives aimed at resolving the situation surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.
Russia's Foreign Ministry denounced the Israeli strikes as "categorically unacceptable" in a strongly worded statement, cautioning that "all the consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership."
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It urged both parties "to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and keep the region from sliding into a full-scale war."
Despite the harsh condemnation of Israel's actions, Moscow has not indicated that it would provide anything beyond political support to Tehran, despite a partnership treaty between the two nations.
In a conversation with Netanyahu, Putin "emphasized the importance of returning to the negotiation process and resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means," and he offered his mediation "in order to prevent further escalation of tensions," according to the Kremlin's readout.
According to the statement, "It was agreed that the Russian side will continue close contacts with the leadership of both Iran and Israel, aimed at resolving the current situation, which is fraught with the most disastrous consequences for the entire region," During a phone conversation on Saturday, Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the intensifying situation in the Middle East. Putin's top foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, relayed that Putin highlighted Russia’s willingness to act as a mediator, and mentioned they had already suggested solutions during U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions aimed at reaching mutual accords.
Historically, Moscow-Tehran relations were strained during the Cold War due to Iran's alliance with the US under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. However, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the new leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini vilified both the U.S., dubbing it the "Great Satan," and the Soviet Union as the "Lesser Satan."
The dissolution of the USSR in 1991 led to a rapid improvement in Russia-Iran relations; Moscow emerged as a key trade ally and a foremost provider of weaponry and technology, particularly valuable to Iran amidst global sanctions. Notably, Russia constructed Iran’s maiden nuclear power facility in Bushehr, which commenced operations in 2013.
Russia played a role in the landmark 2015 agreement between Iran and six major powers by offering Tehran relief from sanctions in return for limitations on its nuclear activities and enhanced international monitoring. When the U.S. exited the deal under Trump's administration, Russia supported Iran politically.
The Syrian civil war ignited in 2011, leading Russia and Iran to unite in support of Bashar Assad’s government. Despite their assistance, Assad's control rapidly unraveled after December 2024 due to an unanticipated opposition offensive.
When Russia instituted a full-blown incursion of Ukraine in 2022, the West accused Tehran of striking an accord with Moscow to supply Shahed drones, with plans to initiate production within Russia subsequently.
In January, Putin, alongside Pezeshkian, solidified a "comprehensive strategic partnership" pact dictating extensive collaboration across political, economic, and defense sectors.
Throughout the Cold War era, Moscow was a supplier and trainer for Israel's adversaries in the Arab world. Diplomatic ties with Israel fractured in 1967 but were re-established by 1991; post-Soviet Union collapse, Russia-Israel relations have thrived continuously.
Despite Russia's intimate ties with Tehran, Putin has proven time and again that he is willing to consider Israeli concerns.
His rapport with Netanyahu remained substantial, marked by numerous trips to Russia by the Israeli leader pre-Ukraine conflict.
Russia and Israel fostered a robust relationship spanning politics, economy, and culture, which allowed them to navigate complex, contentious issues – including those linked to Syria. Their alliance even withstood the grave challenge when a Russian reconnaissance plane was downed by Syrian forces amid an Israeli airstrike in 2018, resulting in the loss of all 15 passengers.
Despite Russia's provision of advanced S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran, Moscow has been slow to deliver other weapons, seemingly in response to Israeli concerns. Specifically, Russia has postponed supplying the advanced Su-35 fighter jets that Iran desires to upgrade its aging fleet.
Israel, for its part, seems to have considered Moscow's interests by showing little enthusiasm for arming Ukraine in the ongoing three-year war.
The Kremlin's amicable relationship with Israel has sparked dissatisfaction in Tehran, where some political and military leaders are reportedly skeptical of Moscow's intentions.
Maintaining positive relations with both Israel and Iran could now prove beneficial, positioning Moscow as a trusted mediator between the two parties and a potential participant in any future agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.
Well before Friday's strikes, Putin discussed escalating Middle East tensions with Trump in phone calls, providing the Russian leader an opportunity to shift focus from the war in Ukraine and engage more extensively with Washington on global issues.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently suggested that Russia could take highly enriched uranium from Iran and convert it into civilian reactor fuel as part of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement.
The prospects for brokering a deal with Iran over its nuclear program are looking bleak following Israeli strikes, and should further discussions take place, Russia's proposal might play a key role in any resulting agreement.
Experts predict that the recent Israeli attacks might push global oil prices higher, which could inadvertently line Moscow's pockets especially when its economy is facing challenges.
"It will destroy the hopes of Ukraine and its allies in Western Europe for a drop in Russian oil revenues that are essential for filling the military budget," wrote Ruslan Pukhov, a Moscow-based military analyst, in his analysis.
Some voices in Moscow suggest that rising tensions in the Middle East could divert Western focus and resources away from the war in Ukraine, potentially giving Russia an edge on the battlefield.
"The world's attention to Ukraine will weaken," pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov opined. "A war between Israel and Iran will help the Russian army's success in Ukraine."
